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ORIGINAL RESEARCH |
From the Division of Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Chicago, Pritzker School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois.
Address reprint requests to: Judith U. Hibbard, MD, University of Chicago, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 5841 South Maryland Avenue, MC 2050, Chicago, IL 60637, E-mail: jhibbard{at}babies.bsd.uchicago.edu
| Abstract |
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Methods: In a prospective observational study in an unselected urban tertiary care population, cervical length was measured by transvaginal ultrasound during routine anatomic surveys in 760 gravidas at 16 0/7 to 22 6/7 weeks. The predictor variable was cervical length and the outcome variable was gestational age at delivery. Care providers were not masked to the results. Spontaneous preterm delivery was analyzed as before 37, 35, and 32 weeks. Shortened cervical length was defined by the tenth, fifth, and two and a half percentiles for our population. Yates-corrected
2 was used to evaluate the significance on univariate analysis of the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to control for background variables in evaluating the probability of pre-term delivery at less than 35 weeks. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values also were calculated.
Results: Cervical lengths were normally distributed (mean 38.5 ± 8.0 mm at 19.9 ± 1.5 weeks) independent of gestational age at measurement, and the tenth, fifth, and two and a half percentiles were 30, 27, and 22 mm, respectively. Eighty-five women delivered before 37 weeks, 51 before 35 weeks, and 27 before 32 weeks. Relative risks (95% CI) for spontaneous preterm delivery before 37 weeks were 3.8 (2.6, 5.6), 5.4 (3.3, 9.0), and 6.3 (3.0, 13.0) for the tenth, fifth, and two and a half percentiles, respectively; RRs for before 35 weeks were 4.5 (2.9, 6.9), 7.5 (4.5, 12.5), and 7.8 (3.6, 16.7); and for before 32 weeks were 5.2 (3.3, 8.3), 9.7 (5.8, 16.1), and 8.4 (3.6, 19.9), respectively. Multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed that cervical length was a significant predictor of preterm birth before 35 weeks, and that paras had a 43% greater risk compared with nulliparas. Sensitivity ranged from 1344%, specificity 9099%, positive predictive value 1547%, and negative predictive value 8098%.
Conclusion: Transvaginal measurement of cervical length during routine ultrasound at 1622 weeks gestation in asymptomatic gravidas might help identify women at risk for spontaneous preterm delivery.
Cervical length measured by transvaginal sonogram, which is more accurate than transabdominal ultrasound1,2 or digital examination,35 has been inversely associated with spontaneous preterm delivery.58 Andersen et al6 described a risk of preterm delivery that increased to cervical length. That observation was confirmed in at-risk5,9 and general obstetric populations, unselected by risk factors.68,10,11 In an unselected low-risk obstetric population, Iams et al7 noted that the risk of spontaneous preterm delivery before 35 weeks increased more than sixfold and ninefold when measurements were less than 26 mm (tenth percentile) taken at 24 and 28 weeks, respectively. In an unselected Finnish population, Taipale and Hilesmaa8 found that shortened cervical length at 1822 weeks gestation had a relative risk of spontaneous preterm delivery eight times that of women with a normal cervical length. However, that population was a homogeneous group with an impressively low incidence of spontaneous preterm delivery before 35 weeks (0.8%). As a result, sensitivity and positive predictive value of cervical length in that population were quite low. We investigated whether cervical length measured early in gestation (1622 weeks) by transvaginal ultrasound would predict spontaneous preterm delivery in our unselected urban American tertiary center population.
| Materials and Methods |
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Sonographic measurements were done using an HDI 3000 instrument (Advanced Technology Laboratories, Seattle, WA) with a 48 MHz endovaginal probe according to a technique described by Iams et al.7,13 After consent, subjects were asked to empty their bladders. After the probe was inserted and a clear view of the endocervical canal was obtained, the probe was withdrawn to release the pressure until the image blurred. Slight pressure was then reapplied to obtain a clear image. The cervical length was measured along the closed endocervical canal between the triangular area of echodensity at the external os, and the V-shaped notch at the internal os. The shortest of three measurements was recorded. Three technicians trained in the technique by one of the authors (JUH) did all the scans and were supervised by attending faculty. Quality control was ensured in a manner similar to that of Iams et al.7,13 Each technician recorded cervical length measurements on ten consecutive women on videotape for review and critique. Intraobserver coefficient of variation of less than 10% was accepted.
Delivery information was collected from our computerized obstetric database, including gestational age, birth weight, Apgar scores, mode of delivery, nursery admission, and complications. The primary predictor variable was cervical length, and the primary outcome variable was gestational age at delivery. Funneling of the lower uterine segment was not chosen as a predictor because of the variable nature of the measurements.7 Spontaneous preterm delivery was defined and analyzed at the following three cutoff points: delivery before 37 weeks (the traditional definition for preterm delivery), before 35 weeks, and before 32 weeks, when most neonatal morbidity and mortality occurs and the time-focus of most neonatal intensive care units in this country. Indicated preterm deliveries were not included in analyses.
Cervical length distribution for our population was analyzed, and mean and standard deviations and percentiles were calculated. Normality was tested using descriptive statistics for skewedness, a histogram, and a normality plot (inverse normal versus cervical length), and a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality. A Pearson correlation test was used to test for independence between cervical length and gestational age. Abnormal cervical length was defined as at or below the tenth, fifth, and two and a half percentiles. Those values were then used to examine our data for an association with preterm delivery, initially performing univariate analysis to estimate the risk of spontaneous preterm delivery before 37, 35, and 32 weeks. Yates corrected
2 analysis was used to evaluate the significance of the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Multiple logistic regression analysis was done to estimate probability of spontaneous preterm delivery before 35 weeks while controlling for background variables. Variables considered in addition to cervical length were maternal age, race, marital status, payor status, parity, and substance abuse. The final model included maternal age, marital status, parity, and cervical length. Sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values were also calculated. Two-tailed Student t test was used to compare groups, with P < .05 considered statistically significant. In our population, with a 7.5% incidence of spontaneous preterm delivery at less than 35 weeks, we assumed a 3% incidence of shortened cervix, an
of 0.05, and ß of 0.20, and calculated that 682 women would need to be studied to have an 80% power for shortened cervical length to detect a fourfold increase in risk for spontaneous preterm delivery before 35 weeks. A stratified analysis by weeks gestation at the time of cervical length measurement (1617, 1819, and 2022 weeks) was done, but insufficient events in two of three groups precluded statistically meaningful results.
| Results |
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| Discussion |
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Cervical length measured by endovaginal ultrasound to predict preterm birth was first noted by Andersen et al,6 who found that in an unselected population of 113 gravidas, a cervix of less than 39 mm before 30 weeks gestation was a significant risk factor for early delivery and was inversely related to cervical length. That inverse relationship was verified by other investigators.2,7,8 Kushnir et al12 reported cervical length measurements in normal gravidas longitudinally, but did not study outcomes. Zorzoli et al14 also investigated cervical length longitudinally in 154 normal gravidas and did not find any association with gestational age at delivery. Tongsong et al10 studied 730 unselected women at 28 to 30 weeks gestation and found that cervical length less than 35 mm was associated with early delivery. Cervical length less than 26 mm, measured at 24 and 28 weeks gestation, was shown by Iams et al,7 in a large, multicenter, unselected heterogeneous American population, to have RRs for delivery before 35 weeks of 6.2 and 9.6, respectively. They also found a strong inverse relationship between cervical length and preterm delivery before 35 weeks gestation. Sensitivity and specificity of cervical length measurement at 24 weeks gestation were 37% and 92%, respectively. Only an 18% positive predictive value was achieved in that population with a 4.3% spontaneous preterm delivery rate before 35 weeks. Taipale and Hilesmaa8 investigated a large, homogeneous, unselected Finnish population at 18 to 22 weeks gestation, but the prevalence of preterm delivery before 35 weeks was only 0.8%. Although they found an eightfold increase in preterm delivery associated with a cervical length
29 mm, the low prevalence rate resulted in only 19% sensitivity and 6% positive predictive value.
We also investigated an unselected obstetric population, and our study was similar to that of Iams et al7 in that our population was heterogeneous and was derived from a large urban American tertiary center population, but differed in that we studied women at earlier gestational ages. That age was used because it is when we do routine comprehensive anatomic surveys, and we wished to know whether the cervical measurements would be a useful addition to the examination, as well as being more convenient than a 24 or 28 week measurement. The cervical lengths for each percentile we measured were longer than those of Iams et al,7 possibly because of the earlier gestational age at which we did the scans, or perhaps they were inherent in our population. Cervical length at the tenth percentile was the same as that documented by Andersen et al.6 The sensitivity and specificity we achieved using the tenth percentile of cervical length, 41.2% and 90.7%, for delivery before 35 weeks, were almost identical to the 37.3% and 92.2% determined by Iams et al7 for their tenth percentile of cervical length. Our positive predictive value of 27%, better than the 17.8% of Iams et al,7 was because of our high spontaneous preterm delivery rate. Although the timeframe at which we measured cervical lengths was similar to that of Taipale and Hilesmaa,8 our results differed markedly in that our spontaneous preterm delivery rate before 35 weeks gestation was more than ninefold greater than that of the Finnish center. Our sensitivity (41.2%) and positive predictive value (27%) were much higher than those determined by Taipale and Hilesmaa,8 19% and 6%, respectively. We believe our population is much more comparable to urban tertiary centers in this country that also have high spontaneous preterm delivery rates. Multiparas were at greater risk of spontaneous preterm delivery than nulliparas, the opposite findings of Tai-pale and Hilesmaa,8 and an observation in need of further investigation.
One of the limitations of our study design was that measurements of cervical length were available to the clinicians ordering anatomic surveys, and we acknowledge that the study could have been improved by masking the results to all caregivers. Patients who had cerclage were excluded. The separate interventional trial was unsuccessful and was halted, and the few women enrolled in it were not included in this analysis. If a clinician suggested another form of intervention, such as bedrest, antibiotics, or tocolytics, with the assumption that it would decrease preterm delivery, and the intervention was actually effective, then our results would be biased toward a lower relative risk of delivering early than really exists and lower positive and negative predictive values. Additional bias might exist because women in this study were receiving prenatal care by 1622 weeks gestation. Poor obstetric history, including previous preterm delivery, might have prompted them to register early, thus biasing our results toward greater relative risks than actually exist. Women who registered for care later or who presented for delivery with no prenatal care also had high preterm delivery rates. The study would be stronger if we had had information on previous conization procedures or previous preterm births, because parity was associated with risk of preterm birth in our population. Strengths of this investigation were that subjects were an unselected, representative population from our institution. Thus, we believe the results are applicable not only to our greater patient population but also to other urban centers in this country that serve populations with similar demographics.
Endovaginal cervical length measurement in routine anatomic surveys allowed us to more clearly see fetal intracranial anatomy and lumbosacral spine. We diagnosed placenta previa more accurately, and occasionally suspected a vasa previa or accreta. We did not investigate the cost-effectiveness of adding cervical length measurements to our anatomic survey, but we acknowledge that it might increase expenses of an obstetric sonography unit. Those expenses might include, with purchase of the endovaginal probe, the proper cleaning materials and procedures between patients.
This was an observational study, so we can make no recommendation on how to treat women with abnormal cervical lengths at routine anatomic survey. However, the method can be used to select patients for prospective interventional trials with the rationale that intervention before 24 weeks might be more effective than later intervention. Transvaginal cervical length measurement also can be used in combination with other markers for premature delivery, such as fetal fibronectin screening, serum alpha-fetoprotein, or serum alkaline phosphatase, in developing treatment strategies. Unfortunately, there is little to offer women in treatment to delay preterm delivery.
| Footnotes |
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Received April 27, 2000. Received in revised form July 6, 2000. Accepted August 31, 2000.
| References |
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