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ORIGINAL RESEARCH |
From the 1Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland; 2Huntsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah Health Sciences Center, Salt Lake City, Utah; 3Marshfield Clinic Research Foundation, Marshfield, Wisconsin; 4Information Management Systems, Inc., Rockville, Maryland; and 5Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland.
| ABSTRACT |
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METHODS: In the screening arm of a randomized controlled trial of screening compared with usual care, 28,460 women with family history data received baseline and annual CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography examinations. We analyzed CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography results from the first four rounds of screening. We classified women as average (n=22,687), moderate (n=2,572), or high (n=2,163) risk based on family history, or high risk due to a personal history of breast cancer (n=1,038). Cancers were identified by active follow-up of women with abnormal screening results and annual questionnaires. We calculated positive predictive values for screening combinations.
RESULTS: Similar proportions (4.85.0%) of women in each group had abnormal screening results. Higher-risk women were more likely than lower-risk women to undergo biopsy after a positive screen. Screening identified 43 invasive ovarian cancers. The positive predictive values for abnormal screening results were 0.7% in average-risk, 1.3% in moderate-risk, and 1.6% in high-risk groups; one ovarian cancer occurred among the breast cancer survivors. The positive predictive values for postbaseline abnormal screening results were also higher in the higher-risk groups. The positive predictive values did not significantly differ across risk groups.
CONCLUSION: Probabilities of abnormal annual CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography screens were similar across groups based on family history of breast or ovarian cancer. However, ovarian cancer was more likely to be diagnosed after an abnormal screening result among women at higher family historybased risk than among women at lower risk.
CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00002540
LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: I
In 2006, an estimated 20,180 U.S. women will be diagnosed with ovarian cancer, and an estimated 15,310 women will die from the disease.6 Detecting ovarian cancer at earlier stages by screening could reduce its mortality and, according to one model, extend survival by 3 years.7 Ovarian cancer screening in the general population has not been shown to be effective and is currently not recommended.8,9 Ongoing randomized clinical trials are evaluating whether ovarian cancer screening in the general population by the CA 125 in serum or transvaginal ultrasonography can reduce ovarian cancer mortality. These clinical trials, which have reported some preliminary results,10 will provide a standard for screening efficacy but will not be completed for several years.11,12
Screening should generate higher yields in groups at higher background risk. Screening women at elevated risk due to a family history of breast or ovarian cancer might prove advantageous compared with population-based screening,13 in which the low prevalence of ovarian cancer and even small numbers of false-positive screening results would reduce overall cost-effectiveness. Definitive data on screening high-risk women, such as BRCA mutation carriers, are not yet available. At least 11 studies have been conducted, but the results collectively include small numbers of ovarian cancers and are difficult to interpret because the studies used different populations, screening modalities, and methods of cancer ascertainment.12 Using preliminary data from the active screening arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial,11 we evaluated whether ovarian cancer screening with CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography performs better in women with a family history of breast or ovarian cancer than in women without a family history.
| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Within each center, age- and sex-stratified randomization assigned women to a control arm, where they were asked to follow their usual medical care, or an intervention arm, where they were offered lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer screening at regular intervals.11 Recruitment occurred at 10 U.S. screening centers: The University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL; University of Colorado Health Sciences Center, Denver, CO; Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC; Pacific Health Research Institute, Honolulu, HI; Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI; University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, MN; Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO; University of Pittsburgh Cancer Institute, Pittsburgh, PA; University of Utah Health Sciences Center, Salt Lake City, UT; and Marshfield Medical Research and Education Foundation, Marshfield, WI. Institutional review boards at the National Cancer Institute and each screening center approved the study. Although the current analysis does not address the PLCO trials main objectives, the PLCO trial follows Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials guidelines.15
At entry, participants completed a self-administered general risk factor questionnaire that queried demographics, smoking, history of cancer in first-degree relatives, anthropometry, personal medical and medication use history, reproductive history, exogenous hormone use, gynecologic surgeries, and personal history of cancer screening tests. The precoded questionnaires were optically scanned at each screening center.
We stratified these participants into four risk groups based on their reported personal history of breast cancer or first-degree family history of breast or ovarian cancer. We considered participants who reported no breast cancer or ovarian cancer in relatives to be at average risk. We considered participants who reported only one relative with breast cancer (and no relatives with ovarian cancer) to be at moderate risk if that relative was diagnosed after age 50. We considered participants who reported any relative diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50, two or more relatives diagnosed with breast cancer (regardless of age at diagnosis), or any relative diagnosed with ovarian cancer (regardless of age at diagnosis) to be at high risk. We placed participants who had a personal history of breast cancer into a separate risk category.
After randomization, women in the intervention arm received a concurrent CA 125 test and transvaginal ultrasonography at baseline, plus five additional annual CA 125 tests and three additional annual transvaginal ultrasonography screens. Trained examiners used a 5- to 7.5-MHz transvaginal probe to measure each ovary and describe any observed abnormalities.11 Serum samples were locally obtained and frozen before shipment to the central laboratory, at University of California at Los Angeles, for processing. The Centocor CA-125II RIA assay (Centocor, Inc., Malvern, PA) provided test results, and we considered values of 35 units/mL or more to be abnormal (positive). Coefficients of variation ranged from 4.1% at lower concentrations to 3.8% at higher concentrations.16 We analyzed CA 125 on a logarithmic scale.
Participants and their personal physicians received the CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography results within 3 weeks of blood draw. Women whose CA 125 levels were abnormal or whose ultrasonography revealed abnormalities suspicious for cancer were referred to their physicians for further care. Study staff collected medical records for all procedures related to the abnormal screens and recorded data on standardized forms. Each screening center contacted these women to determine whether ovarian cancer was diagnosed. Trained tumor registrars abstracted pathology reports for all ovarian neoplasms, which study staff reviewed. All of the cancers included in this analysis had been confirmed by pathology.
Around each anniversary of their initial screening, all participants received a mailed annual questionnaire, which ascertained the type and date of any cancer diagnosed in the previous year. Study staff contacted participants by mail and telephone if participants did not return their updates. To validate the self-reported cancers, staff retrieved medical records (for standardized medical record abstraction of pathology reports), death certificates, data from state cancer registries, and information from next-of-kin for deceased participants. Trial participants are scheduled to be followed up for at least 13 years after randomization.17
The trial enrolled 78,232 women and randomly assigned 39,117 to the usual-care arm and 39,115 to the screening arm. We first restricted analysis to the 39,115 women in the screening arm, then excluded 4,913 women who had bilateral oophorectomy before enrollment and 5,696 women who never received a screening examination. We also excluded 46 women who did not complete the baseline risk factor questionnaire.16 The final analysis included 28,460 women.
We included neoplasms detected through the first four screening examinationsie, baseline plus the first three annual screens, for up to four CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography tests. We defined a screen-detected endpoint as any invasive ovarian, peritoneal, or fallopian tube cancer or borderline tumor (ie, low malignant potential) that was identified within the 12 months after a positive screening result. We calculated the positive predictive values for endpoint combinations as the number of study endpoints divided by the number of positive screening results. We compared positive predictive values across risk groups using a
2 test where applicable and Fisher exact test, as needed.
| RESULTS |
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Table 2 shows the characteristics of the study population. Two thirds of the women were between ages 55 and 64 years. Approximately 87% were white, more than 90% reported at least a high school diploma, approximately 52% had used oral contraceptives, and approximately 92% of women had been pregnant at least once. Almost all women were postmenopausal at entry
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Table 3 shows the results of the combined CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography screening examinations in the four risk groups. Similar percentages (4.85.0%) of women in each of the four risk groups had elevated CA 125 levels or abnormal transvaginal ultrasonography findings (ie, positive screening results). Slightly higher percentages of women with positive screens underwent biopsy in the moderate- and high-risk groups, but approximately one fifth of women with positive screens in the other two groups underwent biopsy.
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A total of 43 invasive ovarian cancers, 9 invasive fallopian tube or peritoneal cancers, and 13 low malignant potential tumors were diagnosed in the study population. The positive predictive value of elevated CA 125 levels or abnormal transvaginal ultrasonography findings for invasive ovarian cancer was 0.7% in the average-risk group, 1.3% in the moderate-risk group, and 1.6% in the high-risk group. These differences were not statistically significant (P=.18). Only one invasive cancer was detected among the 1,038 breast cancer survivors. Based on these values, screening 1,000 women in similar risk groups would be expected to identify no more than one invasive ovarian cancer in each group. Inclusion of low malignant potential tumors, fallopian tube cancers, and peritoneal cancers only slightly increased the positive predictive values, and the pattern of higher positive predictive values in the higher-risk groups held.
We assumed that the PLCO trial was the first ovarian cancer screening opportunity for most of these participants. Because a woman whose first screening results are positive might receive careful subsequent clinical observation, we stratified screening results for all subsequent screening examinations according to whether the baseline screen was normal or positive (Table 4). Regardless of baseline screening results, the percentages of subsequent positive examinations were higher in the moderate-risk and high-risk groups than in the average-risk group. The percentages of subsequent positive examinations in the breast cancer survivors were similar to the average-risk groups. The positive predictive values increased across risk groups among women with a normal baseline screening result, but again did not differ statistically.
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For all four risk groups, transvaginal ultrasonography screens generated higher percentages of positive test results and prompted more biopsies than did CA 125 screens (Table 5). Because similar numbers of neoplasms were detected by CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography, the CA 125 positive predictive values exceeded the transvaginal ultrasonography positive predictive values. The numbers of detected endpoints steadily increased as family history-based risk increased. More cancers were detected based on CA 125 (n=33) than transvaginal ultrasonography (n=26).
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Mean baseline CA 125 levels did not differ across risk groups, although the mean slightly increased with each additional year of screening. There was no difference in maximal ovarian volume across risk groups (data not shown).
| DISCUSSION |
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High specificity, reasonable positive predictive values, and low sensitivity have been reported in some studies of screening in high-risk women,10,1821 but no strategy has yet been demonstrated and validated as effective.9,22 The critical metric for screening success is reduced mortality, which can only be determined from sufficiently large, randomized, controlled clinical trials that compare screening modalities with each other or usual care. The PLCO16 and other ongoing trials12 in both general populations and high-risk populations will answer those questions. Until then, however, our data indicate that routine screening, even in high-risk groups, is unlikely to generate meaningfully higher positive predictive values for ovarian cancer.
Women at elevated risk due to family history but without known BRCA mutations comprise less than 10% of the population.1 Screening recommendations for these women vary.23 Several clinics have screened women at high familial risk using CA 125 and ultrasonography, typically in studies of a few hundred women. The estimates of screening characteristics are thus quite imprecise, but an earlier review8 found positive predictive values ranging from 10% to 50%. Our data from the screening arm of the PLCO Trial included 28,460 women but generated positive predictive values below 5%. Because positive predictive value reflects both the probability that a woman with an abnormal screening examination truly has ovarian cancer and the number of procedures that must be performed to detect one cancer, these results indicate that many women would undergo clinical procedures (usually oophorectomy) to detect even a few cancers.
Apart from age, a positive family history of breast or ovarian cancer is the strongest recognized risk factor for developing ovarian cancer. Family history risks can arise from certain cancer susceptibility syndromes, such as hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer or hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, or result from mutations in high-penetrance cancer susceptibility genes.30 Women with confirmed BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations represent less than 12% of all women3 but have up to a 50% lifetime probability of developing ovarian cancer.30 These women can consider risk-reducing prophylactic salpingo-oophorectomy, but not all women elect to have surgery.1 Women who are likely mutation carriers are recommended to receive genetic testing,3 but not all women comply.1 Risk gradients certainly exist within the large population of women not at high risk, but no consensus definition of risk exists for this group.
Women who have survived breast cancer comprise a separate high-risk group.31 Only one ovarian cancer occurred in the PLCOs 1,038 breast cancer survivors; therefore, the positive predictive values in this group are likely too unstable to be immediately informative. Surgical and medical treatments for breast cancer, including oophorectomy, can complicate the interpretation of an ovarian screening program. Recent treatment developments, such as selective estrogen receptor modulators and aromatase inhibitors,32 alone or sequentially,33 seem to favorably influence breast cancer survival. Whether those treatments influence ovarian cancer risk is unknown, although the available data from early selective estrogen receptor modulator trials indicated no relationship.34
The design and conduct of the PLCO Screening Trial offer a number of particular strengths compared with observational studies of screening in selected populations, nonrandomized clinical trials, or multicenter trials that lack standard protocols. Because of the small number of ovarian cancers expected in most studies to date, even minor variations in design or conduct could dramatically affect application of study results to other populations. The PLCO participants were recruited from defined populations and screened according to a standard protocol. Each screening center collected identical data, and all screening examinations were consistently administered, evaluated, and analyzed. The PLCOs large size (even when restricted to only one arm of the trial) generated a large number of postmenopausal women in each of the four risk groups, including over 1,000 breast cancer survivors.
Our analysis has important limitations. The baseline questionnaire did not assess second-degree family history of breast or ovarian cancer. Family history status has not been updated, so we cannot identify women whose family history-based risk increased after baseline. BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation status has not been determined for trial participants, and therefore the generalizability of these data to confirmed mutation carriers is unknown. We relied on participants standard health care providers to determine follow-up of suspicious screening results, including when and in whom to perform biopsies. Because the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial only enrolled women who were at least 55 years old, these results are not generalizable to premenopausal, perimenopausal, or younger women. Finally, the relatively small numbers of ovarian cancers that were identified in this analysis, although it compares favorably to previous publications,12 generates unstable estimates of positive predictive value, and thus additional data from larger populations with longer follow-up are required to fully assess ovarian cancer screening.
Ongoing randomized clinical trials, including the PLCO study, will evaluate the efficacy of ovarian cancer screening. Until such data are available, however, this analysis shows that stratifying women into risk groups based on family history slightly increased the positive predictive value of a combined CA 125- and transvaginal ultrasonographybased screening algorithm. Determining whether those differences prove to be efficacious, cost-effective, or clinically useful in screened populations awaits the results of the PLCO and other screening studies.
| Footnotes |
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The authors thank Craig Williams at IMS, Inc., Silver Spring, MD, for computing support.
Corresponding author: James V. Lacey, PhD, 6120 Executive Boulevard MSC 7234, Rockville, MD 20852-7234; e-mail: jimlacey{at}nih.gov.
doi:10.1097/01.AOG.0000239105.39149.d8
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